Large-scale layoffs in Hong Kong are unlikely over the next three years as artificial intelligence is introduced, but 20–30% of jobs are expected to undergo structural change, the Labour and Welfare Bureau said. Its research-group head, Roy Chan Kwok-fai, gave the assessment at the Legislative Council’s Panel on Manpower on 13 October.

The bureau identified young graduates and middle-aged workers without degrees in clerical jobs as facing the greatest challenges. Vacancies for jobs considered suitable for young graduates fell from 80,000 in 2022 to just over 30,000 in 2024, a drop of about 60%, and stayed at a similar level in 2025.

The government’s Manpower Projections Mid-term Update estimates an overall workforce shortfall of about 130,000 in 2028, down from about 180,000 in the previous projection. It links the smaller projected gap to measures to attract talent and import labour over the past three years, while warning that staffing remains tight in innovation and technology, aviation, construction, urban operations and healthcare.

A labour-sector legislator questioned how much confidence to place in some of the occupational forecasts. He cited non-technical workers: a 2023 projection had forecast a shortage of 2,000, but the reported position in 2025 was a surplus of 10,000. The updated projection nevertheless points to a shortage of more than 40,000 by 2028.

Chan said the 2025 demand estimate counted unfilled posts within approved establishments, and that demand had not risen in every industry. He linked increased demand for technical and non-technical workers in some areas to construction and development in the Northern Metropolis. Demand for professionals reflected a recovery in finance as well as Northern Metropolis projects, including demand for engineers.

Chan forecast that demand for AI specialists would rise three- to fourfold over the next three to four years. He also said small and medium-sized enterprises account for 98% of companies and half of the local workforce, and could create more jobs if AI helps them expand into new business.