El Niño has formed and is expected to reach super-strong intensity within the next two to three months, the Hong Kong Observatory said in its latest assessment. The event may bring higher temperatures and less rainfall to Hong Kong in autumn 2026.
The Observatory expects the event to peak in November or December 2026. El Niño itself is forecast to continue until at least spring 2027.
The Observatory said autumns during the years of the previous three super-strong El Niño events all had noticeably higher average temperatures. The reports did not give the likely size of the temperature increase or rainfall decrease in Hong Kong in 2026.
The event may also be exceptionally strong by historical standards. One report, citing the Observatory, said it could become the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950, while another described it as potentially the strongest ever. These comparisons remain possibilities rather than confirmed outcomes.
Sea temperatures in key regions are expected to decline gradually in early 2027 but remain above average, and the Observatory expects El Niño to last into spring.
The Observatory said it would closely monitor El Niño’s development and its effects on Hong Kong.