Hong Kong’s government raised its forecast for full-year real GDP growth in 2026 to 3.5%–4.5% on 14 August, up from the previous range of 2.5%–3.5%, after the economy recorded its strongest half-year performance in nearly five years. The revised outlook was issued in the government’s half-year economic report.
Real GDP grew 5.1% year on year in the first half of 2026. Growth eased to 4.3% in the second quarter from 5.9% in the first quarter, but the government said the overall performance supported a more positive full-year outlook.
Officials attributed the strength to external trade and global demand, as well as resilient domestic demand. Demand for technology- and artificial-intelligence-related products was also cited as a factor supporting the economy.
Exports increased 28.9% year on year in the second quarter, faster than the 23.8% rise recorded in the first quarter. Private consumption growth, however, slowed to 2.8% in the second quarter from 4.9% in the first.
The government kept its forecasts for underlying consumer-price inflation and headline consumer-price inflation unchanged at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
Officials said the outlook still required monitoring for risks including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, possible spillovers into energy markets and global inflation, and the policy paths of major central banks. They also pointed to trade protectionism in advanced economies and risks linked to the rapid expansion of global investment in artificial intelligence.
Hong Kong has recorded six consecutive quarters of growth above the 10-year quarterly average of 2.8%, according to RTHK. The government’s current full-year forecast remains 3.5%–4.5%, although officials warned that external developments could affect the outlook.