Hong Kong’s projected labour shortage in 2028 has been revised down to about 130,000, from an earlier estimate of roughly 180,000. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun said the revision reflected economic change, not the disappearance of the shortage.
The narrower forecast reflects economic restructuring, the rapid spread of artificial intelligence and the effects of measures to bring in talent and labour.
AI is expected to change the composition of demand as well as its overall size. Sun said repetitive white-collar clerical work faced the greatest risk of displacement, while blue-collar and skills-based jobs were likely to be less affected. Employers, he said, increasingly wanted people who could combine practical AI skills with knowledge of a particular industry and manage the risks of applying the technology.
Hong Kong could need roughly 15,000 to 20,000 workers with that combination of skills in the coming years, according to Sun.
The government plans to use Upskill Hong Kong, currently known as the Employees Retraining Board, to provide AI and advanced training for existing workers. The courses are intended to help people build on their industry experience while adding new technology skills, allowing some to move into roles combining both areas.
A separate plan is aimed at young graduates. Working with six major chambers of commerce, the government intends to provide 10,000 additional full-time jobs over two years from the first quarter of 2027. Each position will last at least six months. For the first six months, the government will subsidise up to HK$6,000 a month or one-third of the salary, with employers paying the balance.
Sun said the subsidy was designed to lower the barrier for employers hesitant to recruit as technology and the economy change. He also said the government could not guarantee that every supported job would become permanent after the subsidy ended.
The forecast sits alongside stark mismatches in particular industries. In catering recruitment under the Supplementary Labour Optimisation Scheme, employers offered more than 5,000 positions, while about 1,000 people attended interviews or applied. More than 300 offers were made, but only about 20 people ultimately accepted employment, Sun said.
Sun linked the gap to pay, location and working conditions, as well as changes in the restaurant trade. Smaller and newer restaurants, along with greater use of prepared food, have altered the demand for kitchen and floor staff. The government says local workers will continue to receive priority in employment.